The Benson trade dominates Marty Noble's Mailbag

In the latest weekly installment of the Mailbag on Mets.com, Marty Noble answers questions related to this weekend's bug trade.

Mets.com: Benson trade opens rotation
Marty Noble's e-mail account must have been full of Benson - Julio related questions. He admits that Kris Benson seemed to be a high price to pay for a reliever who has steadily declined the last three seasons. Noble offers his take on what Julio's problems might be:

It is very much a wait and see on Julio. The yearly increase in his earned run average -- from 1.99 in 2002, to 4.38 in 2003, to 4.57 in 2004 to 5.90 last season -- seems like a red flag. His losing his job as closer may have been as much about the emergence of B.J. Ryan as it was about anything Julio did or didn't do. But the fact remains, his performance in subsequent seasons never approached what he did in 2002.

Pitchers can become get bat-shy and begin to nibble in small ballparks. They fall behind and then get clobbered when they have to throw a strike. That malady usually gets worse each year. I can't say those tendencies developed with Julio. But few parks play as small as Camden Yards.

Julio has been undone by home runs. He has pitched 201 1/3 innings in relief -- which is a good amount for a starter in one season -- in his past three seasons and surrendered 35 home runs, a lot for 200 innings. Braden Looper had trouble with the long ball in his time with the Mets, but he surrendered merely 16 home runs in his two seasons in Flushing and his last with the Marlins while he pitched 223 1/3 innings.

Julio's rate of one home run per 22.2 at-bats is one of the 10 highest rates among Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings over the past three seasons.

I'm sure there are some Mets fans that are really going to love the unfavorable comparison with Braden Looper.

Also interesting was Noble's response to the following:

...It looks like all they did was weaken the rotation by trading Benson and weaken the bullpen by putting Julio in it and moving Heilman to the rotation. Why? They were better off before the deal.

One of the reasons Heilman was in the rotation in the first place last year was that Benson was assigned to the disabled list until May 5. Heilman relieved Benson in the May 5 start, made two more starts and then was shifted to the bullpen. One of the reasons cited at the time was that Heilman's changeup, while quite effective in relief, might not be so effective if he were a starter, because opposing batters would be more apt to adjust to it if exposed to it more often.

I can't argue your point that the rotation appears less formidable now -- with or without Heilman. And if Heilman is in the rotation, the bullpen will be less formidable too, particularly against left-handed hitters.

Obviously Noble is not a fan of this weekend's trade. It's been interesting to see and hear the mixed reaction on the web and on sports radio to this deal. Some are convinced that dumping Benson for two warm bodies is the smartest thing Omar has done. They see Benson as just an overpaid mediocre pitcher, and figure whoever takes his place can do as well or better for a lot less money. More traditional types feel trading an established starter for a middle reliever is baseball heresy, especially after the Seo - Sanchez trade earlier this month.

As for me, I just don't like Jorge Julio. I think there are too many red flags. I don't know enough about John Maine to comment much. Some are convinced he's still a decent prospect to be as high as a number 3 starter, others see him as no better than a serviceable middle reliever. I'm very willing to admit I can be wrong here, but I just don't think Omar got enough for Benson; and despite protests to the contrary, I believe getting Anna out of New York played a role in the pressure to make a deal.

If Julio bombs in New York, Omar will not avoid wearing egg on his face.

ESPN: Who will close for Atlanta?
In his Rumblings and Grumblings column from Friday, Jayson Stark writes on teams that have unfinished business, including the Atlanta Braves who still have no defined closer. Apparently part of the problem was that GM John Schuerholz didn't expect Kyle Farnsworth to leave:

When Farnsworth left, it caught us by surprise, because we didn't have any inclination he didn't want to remain as our closer. This is his hometown. We thought this was the perfect place for him. So when he left, it was more surprising than when [Rafael] Furcal left, because Furcal got $13 million [a year].

I know Farnsworth got $17 million. But $17 million in New York is the equivalent of $15.2 million in Atlanta [factoring in taxes and cost of living]. We were prepared to offer him three years at $5 million [a year]. But we never got that chance.

Schuerholz seems to be hoping that someone will step up from some young candidates they have in spring training. If not, they'll trade for somebody. Atlanta has never placed much of a premium on who their closer was, and that hasn't really hurt them -- at least in the regular season.

Stark also profiles the Phillies unfulfilled desire to add a top of the rotation starter.