Benson for Julio -- Done Deal?

In a fast-breaking story, a Kris Benson - Jorge Julio trade may have already happened.

Update: See my latest post. This deal has been confirmed.

Newsday: Benson for Julio, Part Deux
David Lennon and Jon Heyman are reporting that the Kris Benson to the Orioles in exchange for Jorge Julio talks have been revived. The sticking point in the original discussions was Baltimore's unwillingness to include a prospect in the deal. According to Lennon and Heyman, the Orioles seem to have had a change of heart, and Mets officials are "feeling optimistic" that a trade will be consummated.

Lennon and Heyman state that the trade will open up a slot for Aaron Heilman to pitch in the rotation. They also opine that a big reason for dealing Benson is to say "hasta la vista, baby" to Anna Benson. I had some problems with this deal back when it was discussed in early December, and I still have reservations about it:

• Julio's career has been going in the wrong direction.
  After bursting into baseball's consciousness with a great year in 2002, Julio has seen his numbers decline steadily since then. He gives up a lot of hits for a power pitcher, and an impressive number of home runs. He lost the closer's job in Baltimore, and it is instructive that, with B.J. Ryan gone, they would still rather deal Julio and give the job to an untested young player.
  
  
• Depending on the caliber of the prospect you receive, for a second time this winter you are essentially trading a starting pitcher for a middle reliever.
  I could understand Omar doing this once, as the bullpen desperately needed a quality arm. Despite the success he had when he was first called up, Seo tailed towards the end of the year and still looks to be a bottom of the rotation starter. Benson, for all of his failure to achieve to the level befitting a former Number One pick, is a better starter than Seo. Unless you are talking a really, really good prospect, this is a head shaker to me.
  
  
• If they can't make it there, can they make it here?
  Julio is an Armando Benitez clone as a pitcher. Unfortunately, he has shown Benitez-like negative tendencies, also. The Baltimore faithful lost patience with him, just how patient will Mets fans be? This could get quite ugly.
  
  
• Who is going to get lefthanders out?
  The strongest argument for leaving Aaron Heilman in the bullpen is that his changeup is effective against lefties. Julio would certainly add a young power arm to the bullpen, but he's another RHP with traditional splits.
  
  
• Can we afford to trade another starter when we have so many question marks in the rotation?
  If this deal is not a precursor to a Zito pickup, I have to question trading away a quality starter. Pedro's toe, Glavine's age, Trachsel's back, Zambrano's inconsistency and Heilman's relative inexperience argue against it.
  
  

As for the Anna situation, which Lennon and Heyman sum up this way:

The deal would be a two-for-two trade for the Mets in a way; Anna Benson has become a colorful and constant presence around the Mets. She appeared as a scantily clad Mrs. Claus at the club's annual kids Christmas party and had been in negotiations to appear in Playboy in even less clothing.

I thought going into that party the Mets already had a good idea who Anna Benson was, and shouldn't have been shocked by what she wore. As for Anna being "a colorful and constant presence around the Mets", the simple solution is not to let her get involved in such things in the future. Anna as a contributing reason to trade her husband is quite silly -- a red state concern in a blue state market.

I won't argue against the concern that Kris Benson has not shown that he can stand up to a full season of pitching, and that his strikeout rate is too low. I have those concerns, too. But I liked the way he pitched in big games like the 2 times he dominated the Yankees -- and I have much bigger concerns about Trachsel and Zambrano.

Julio is young and certainly has a live arm. If the Mets can turn him around they will have a top-notch setup man who can close games, too, but this is certainly the type of deal that can blow up in your face. If nothing else, no one can accuse Omar of playing it safe.

Daily News: Looking to sign Jeff DaVanon?
Anthony McCarron reports that the Mets might be one of the teams looking to sign former Angels outfielder Jeff DaVanon. McCarron quotes DaVanon's agent, Mike Nicotera:

He's coming from a competitive, contending club. Jeff is a pretty good example of the kind of guy the Angels have been successful with the past few years.

It's safe to say there are a number of teams interested and he's certainly interested in going to a contender where he can earn some at-bats. There are a number of moving pieces in the outfield mix (around baseball) and we're trying to be patient to find the best spot.

The rumor is that the Mets are looking to deal Victor Diaz, and see the switch-hitting DaVanon as someone who can platoon somewhat with Xavier Nady in right field. The only problem here is that DaVanon is a markedly better hitter as a right-handed batter.

MLB Trade Rumors: Zito rumors
I normally don't pay much attention to this web site, because 90% of what they talk about doesn't happen (in fairness, that's why they call them "rumors"), but this one ties into the last 2 items:

New Possible Zito Scenario

Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario. Here's how this could play out:

The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him. Benson would be dealt to the O's for young players of Billy Beane's choice.

Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland. The A's don't have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types. The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.

The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade. The switch-hitting DaVanon didn't do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004. Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws. So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.

Obviously the addition of Zito would more than make up for the loss of Benson. The only thing that makes me nervous here is Zito himself. I like him, but foresee that he might wind up as one of the more overpaid pitchers in the game after this season. Needless to say, if the Mets gave up Benson, Heilman and Victor Diaz to get Zito, they would have to re-sign him. A one-year rental would not be a good thing.

BTW, over the last 3 years DaVanon's OPS against RHPs is .747. I'm not convinced that using the switch-hitting DaVanon as the left-handed component of a platoon makes that much sense. Plus you've already got Endy Chavez and Tike Redman on the roster. Is DaVanon such a huge upgrade over them? Are the Mets collecting mediocre outfielders?

What does this all mean?
Let's see how this shakes out. An Orioles site is already reporting this as a done deal:

Orioles Hangout says trade has been made

I'm going to see if there is any verification out there.