John Sickles on David Wright

John Sickles does one of his projections for David Wright at his Minor League Ball web site. Those are always interesting starting points for argument and speculation, i.e., a fun way to spend a slow hot stove day. We'll leave his "good-natured joke" about David going to the Orioles after leaving the Mets in 2011 alone and concentrate on the numbers.

I'm not quite sure how Sickles comes up with his projections, but stuff like this always fascinates me. Personally, I'd be disappointed in Wright if his batting average went according to this projection. A kid that can bat .306 in 575 ABs as a 22-year-old should be a more consistent .300 hitter than the player in this projection -- who Sickles believes will only crack that number twice more in his career. Also, I think David is going to cut down on his strikeouts over the next few years, which should also help his average. The numbers in this projection indicate to me a player that has sold out to hitting home runs, and I think David will be a more complete hitter than that.

At the time I looked at this, 70% of the visitors felt the projection to be pessimistic, too, which I'm sure indicates that a lot of Mets fans agree with me.

Thanks to MetsBlog for this one.