Mike's Mets

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

New York Mets Hot Stove Moves, Part 2

We continue our look at some of the moves Omar made this off-season, from significant signings to controversial trades.

11/28/2005 - Acquired OF Tike Redman from the Pirates for cash
It's no coincidence that Billy Wagner signed with the Mets the day after they added Redman to the roster. By getting Tike Redman, Omar Minaya proved to Wagner that he was serious about building a real pennant contender... Oh, sorry -- it was the Delgado trade that did that. Never mind.

11/29/2005 - Signed free agent closer Billy Wagner to a 4-year deal
The Mets received a lot of flack from the boys at WFAN for pulling out all of the stops to sign the top free agent closer. The bottom line is that it worked, and signing Wagner filled an absolutely critical need for the Mets, if they are serious about contending in 2006.

There is some question as to whether the Mets overpaid to get Wagner, especially in the length of the contract. Wagner is a power pitcher who will turn 35 in July. The odds of him still being an effective closer at age 39 seem rather slim. (There actually is a club option for the fifth year -- what do you suppose the odds are on the Mets making that choice?) I think the Mets will be happy to get a couple of dominant years out of Wagner and then anything else will be a bonus. If that happens, I think most Mets fans will be happy.

This is the one move that Omar made over the off-season that he received little criticism for -- other than the contract length, which we all understand was the price of signing Wagner once B.J. Ryan signed a 5-year deal. Could this backfire? Sure -- maybe Wagner gets hurt and doesn't give the Mets any years as a dominant closer. Still, the reward of finally having a real closer outweighs the risk.

And Tike Redman jokes aside, for those that accused Omar of being in too big of a hurry to get Delgado, you can't convince me that the Delgado signing didn't help influence Wagner's choice. Few of the pundits who bashed Omar in print for his moves bother to concede that obvious point.

12/5/2005 - Traded prospects OF Dante Brinkley and RHP Gaby Hernandez to the Marlins for C Paul Lo Duca.
Omar Minaya followed up his least controversial off-season move for what is arguably his most controversial. Negotiations with free agent catchers Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina didn't seem very promising, and most of us were expecting the quest for a catcher to drag on past the winter meetings. The first go round on the Chris Benson for Jorge Julio rumors were consuming all of us, and we no sooner breathed a sigh of relief when the deal fell through when we started hearing about Lo Duca.

Lo Duca is a 34 year old catcher that has had problems throwing out runners, and also has a history of wearing down as the season goes on. He has no power, and at $6 million + per year for the next two years he isn't all that cheap.

After the trade of Yusmeiro Petit in the Delgado deal, Gaby Hernandez was the top pitching prospect left in the system, and the #3 overall in Baseball America's ranking of Mets prospects. It wasn't that he was projected to be an ace -- most credible sources had him pegged as a solid middle of the rotation starter. The consensus, though, was that the 19 year old Hernandez should be ready for the majors within a couple of years. He seems a lot to give up for Paul Lo Duca, who is one of the most overrated players in baseball. His numbers just don't match up with his reputation.

But we keep hearing how great he will be in the clubhouse. WFAN's Ed Coleman, whose opinion I really do respect, likes Lo Duca a lot, and is convinced he will win over those of us Mets fans who remain skeptical. And there is a thought that playing Ramon Castro twice a week will keep Lo Duca fresh.

So what can we expect from Paul Lo Duca? I don't even pretend to know. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he is at the age where catchers that started off much better than he is have declined rapidly. It seems likely that, although he will throw out more runners than Piazza, he will be below average in that category. He will handle the pitching staff well, and will be popular in the clubhouse. He will hit for a higher average than most catchers, but his power numbers will be on the low side.

Who got the better of the trade? I think the Marlins win this one, but it depends on Hernandez. A lot can happen to a pitching prospect on the way to the majors, and the buzz, for what it's worth, is the Mets internally didn't have him rated very high. Dante Brinkley projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder, if he makes it at all. Lo Duca will probably be decent for a couple of years and then be out of here. It's another win-now move -- if Lo Duca contributes to a championship, it was worth it.

One thing that many have missed here, though, is the message that Omar sent to future free agents the Mets might be trying to sign down the road. Hernandez and Molina were obviously trying to play the Mets to drive their prices up, a gambit we have seen far to often over the years. The message that Omar has sent: there's a new sheriff in town -- play that game, and be prepared for the Mets to move on without you. Down the road, that might pay dividends.

Coming Next: In part 3, we'll look at Jose Valentin, Julio Franco, Chad Bradford and more...


This blog has a new home
Visit Our New Web Site